Republicans Dominating Early and Absentee Voting in Otero County New Mexico

Across the nation unlike four years ago, when mail-in ballots accounted for almost two-thirds of the early vote because of the pandemic, there has been an almost even split this year between mail-in and early in-person voting, with in-person ballots accounting for 54% of all early votes as of Thursday afternoon when looking at national numbers.

The pandemic-era 2020 election had the highest ever early vote totals, at more than 101 million, or 63% of all votes cast. But beside 2020, the share of early votes has remained steady since 2012, even as early vote totals have increased. In 2012 and 2016, early votes were about 36% of all votes.

But how do numbers look closer to home in Otero County New Mexico as we creep up on election day?

So far Otero County is trending toward the higher end of the National Averages of the 2012 and 2016 campaigns.

The NM Secretary of State office reports that Otero County has approximately 37,185 individuals registered to vote..

As of October 30th, 13,797 voters have cast their ballots in Otero County either by early in person voting or by absentee; that is 37.1% of completed eligible ballots.

Otero County New Mexico is considered a deeply red county however if one looks at the numbers the reality of registration is the county is a deeply divided country with a strong element of independents or decline to states; with 44.7 percent of voters registered Republican. The reality in the numbers are a majority of the eligible registered voters in the county are NOT Republican but are a mixture of Democrats 25.9%, Libertarian 1.5%, Decline to State or Independent 26.8%. Thus a majority 55.3% are NOT Republicans?

So why is Otero County New Mexico considered deeply red and all except for two city commission officials Republican?

Simply put the Republican Party of Otero County is better organized, is year around engaged with its core base with monthly activities and events and as such turns out more of its base to the polls even for off year elections. They keep their base active, informed and motivated. Just look at the early voting numbers.

As of 10/30/24 7815 Republicans have voted or 47% in early voting whereas Independents and Decline to States have had only two 2163 votes cast or 21.7% of eligible voters participating thus far.

Democrats are without a local organization as the state DPNM took over the local chapter meetings and ultimately suspended the local DPOC chapter from operating due to investigations, squabbling and an expulsion of a member of leadership from it's ranks. Thus any organizing or membership engagement to get voters out to vote, is being organized by other state affiliated groups such as BlueCD2 and passionate individual efforts or the national campaigns.

The numbers for the Democratic Party are interesting with that void in mind as the data shows 9641 eligible Democratic voters but 3641 have already cast their ballots or 37.7%. Democrats are trending almost 10 points behind the local Republican Party in motivating their base to cast an early vote and Independents and DTS are trending 25.3% behind Republicans in getting their base out for early or absentee voting.

The clear lesson based on early voting: Otero County is not a deep red county but it is allowing the Republican Party to dominate the local political landscape due to a continuing lack of organization and participation by the non Republican establishment. Thus Otero County is deep red by lack of enthusiasm and engagement by the silent majority.

If the DTS and Independent voters would actually engage in percentages comparable to the Republican engagement, and if Democrats could put an organization together that actually represented and motivated its silent base, then Otero County could be a purple county with competitive local races.

In the meantime, the early numbers show a strong organized local Republican party's effort are succeeding, in maintaining power, and influencing their base to participate.

Unless there is a sudden and significant surge among the DTS and Independents along with Democrats this weekend through Tuesday, then the trends of the Republican turnout forecasts who Tuesday's victors will be in Otero County.

Commentary:

Regardless of your party, if your are eligible to cast a vote do so, it is the easiest form of civic duty one can do and takes minimal time. We were in and of the country building and voted in 10 minutes on 10/25/24. Its simple and the most patriotic action one can take as an American Patriot or Citizen. Get out and vote today!

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