9-05-2024 9:20am

New Mexico Polling Shows Democratic Sweep in November

Chris Edwards Editor

In New Mexico Democrats hold a decisive lead in all major races per recent polls. Recent polling shows Harris with a comfortable lead over former president Trump in the upcoming election. In what was thought to be a highly competitive race for New Mexico's second congressional district; Gabe Vasquez holds a comfortable lead over Yvette Herrell and building.

In a race some thought Republicans had a chance to make inroads in; the race for Senate between Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Nella Domenici; abortion rights is the topic driving this campaign and Heinrich holds a commanding lead verses Domenici who lives in New York most of the year but has a part time residence in New Mexico.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in New Mexico finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 10 points, 52% to 42%, with 6% of voters undecided. Harris’ lead decreases to eight points when the candidate undecided voters lean toward is included. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris leads by 11, 51% to 40%, while 3% support Robert Kennedy Jr.

“Harris’ lead is similar to Joe Biden’s 10.8 point win over Trump in 2020,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Independent voters in New Mexico break for Harris, 48% to 37%. Men break for Harris by a narrow two-point margin, 48% to 46%, while women break for Harris by 17 points, 55% to 38%.”

The economy is the top issue for 29% of New Mexico voters, followed by crime (18%), immigration (13%), education (11%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (6%), and threats to democracy (6%).

“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 54% to 38%, crime, 47% to 45%, and immigration 89% to 9%. Voters who find education, healthcare, housing affordability, threats to democracy, and abortion all break for Harris significantly, an average of 82% to 15%.”

When asked who they trust more to handle immigration in New Mexico, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, 48% trust Harris more, and 46% trust Trump more; 6% trust neither candidate.

Fifty-three percent of voters have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 45% have an unfavorable view of Harris. Forty-two percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 57% have an unfavorable view of him.

In the U.S. Senate Election between incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Nella Domenici, 49% support Heinrich, 37% Domenici, 4% someone else, and 9% are undecided.

Democratic candidates lead the Republicans in all three U.S. House elections in New Mexico. In the 1st district, incumbent Democrat Melanie Ann Stansbury leads Republican Steve Jones 51% to 37%; 12% of voters are undecided. In the 2nd district, 50% support Democrat Gabe Vasquez, while 41% support Republican Yvette Herrell. Nine percent are undecided.

In the 3rd district, 52% support Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, while 39% support Republican Sharon Clahchishchilliage; 9% are undecided.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill New Mexico survey was conducted August 20-22, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=965, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling and voter registration data.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.