Opinion: Understanding Trumps Foreign Policy Bluster - Understanding The Invasion Paradox

Trump's real foreign policy objectives explained as an opinion piece. A commentary by Steven Edwards

I'll explain this and use small words so there is no confusion as to what is going on.

There is a very important reason behind all of the things we are seeing and hearing about so read closely or skip to the end, I don't really care.

The American President is not going to Annex Greenland. We might offer to buy it, once it has independence from Denmark, and so Trump is helping along the pro independence movement there.

Likewise nothing is going to happen with Canada (as much as some of us would like there to finally be some States with Universal Healthcare), at least not according to the way Trump has proposed.

Believe it or not a lot of Canadians have their own independent national and cultural identity and are not in a race to give that up to join a country that will saddle them with a whole bunch of new laws and regulations as well as take away their national benefits.

Turning Canada in to some sort of 51st State is a not politically feasible, the only way it could ever work is like Greenland, there was a strong independence movement, such as existed in Quebec, then we would offer any Provences that broke away admission to the party.

I can see the Yukon, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and maybe Quebec seriously talk about joining the United States, but I doubt Quebec really would in such a hypothetical, if the desire for independence there started to become strong again, they would not trade their newly found political power on the world stage to suddenly becoming a subordinate player in our club.

As far as absorbing British Columbia, or parts of Ontario, given their tight ties with our business and the size of the population that curses to the American God every time they have to cross the border, I could see both of them holding there own independence vote just so they don't have to deal with American customs and the ****ing car lines ever again.

Same thing with absorbing New Brunswick, Nova Scotia Newfound lan, etc, etc They might also have a serious discussion just so they can consider never having to deal with the border crossings or US Coast Guard ever again.

But I believe their coming over to us is doubtful and as I said parts of Ontario. Toronto and Ottawa would always fight to stay an independent nation as would all of the rest of somehow forced in to joining the United States as petty players with our insane State governments.

They actually do have a national cultural identity as hard is that is for Americans to understand.

What about the threats about Panama?

There are two things going on here, the first is that Trump wants a US discount for cost of shipping through it to give our economy a preferential advantage over Chinese or EU businesses that ship goods around the Americas by boat.

The second is that in the event of a war, the US will, and this has never changed, re-assert control of the Panama Canal Zone to make it difficult for an enemies Navy to navigate and be effective fighting both sides of the United States while giving our Navy the competitive advantage of being able to field resources out of any of our seaports quickly.

So what's going to happen?

Well if there was any truth to what Trump proposes then the EU or the Chinese would start immediately working on getting a second canal built, perhaps with Nicaragua and Costa Rica with some difficulty.

Besides the fact that the Atlantic is 20" higher than the Pacific, using Lake Nicaragua as some sort of shortcut is actually even more difficult as it is about 100" higher than the Pacific and has a string of active volcanos. Also they likely would remain opposed to trying to use it due to the environmental concerns.

If Trump was serious, the message to Panama would have already gone out to it and the neighbors, give us what we want or we will be the ones to go to your neighbors and build another, likely the Costa Rica Canal proposal, as Saudi Arabia already wants to run a pipeline across and build their own Canal.

When US interests align with Saudi interests, shit tends to pop off or get done. So look to the coming of a second canal in the future as a serious possibility. Not so much an invasion of Panama.

Since we've already established that there are major political road blocks, why is Trump saying all of this, and what is the ultimate goal?

One goal is get the reduced price of shipping for US companies to give them a competitive advantage.

Another is to force Canada to negotiate with the US again for NAFTA Part Three so we get competitive advantages over both the Canadian and Mexican business as well as to limit finishing and traversal of Chinese supplied goods.

And lastly, this has all been a message to Putin. This is Trump saying, look at what I can do, and I am not even President yet.

When Trump declares he is going to be part of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, he wants that to mean something, so that any deal he makes wont fall through at least during his Presidency.

One of the Ukrainian conditions behind holding or joining those peace talks have always been freezing the border and ending the Russian invasion once and for all.

The way you do that is with security guarantees by NATO or simply the United States.

Trump would really rather pull out of NATO because like with perceived trade imbalances, he thinks they are bad deals.

I'm not going to go in to why he is wrong about the cost/benefit analysis of NATO or the US trade deficits. It doesn't really matter why he is wrong as much as what he is prepared to do because he believes he is correct.

Putin and the Russian Oligarchs need to be made to believe: "you see what I am willing to do to my friends? Just imagine what I am prepared to do to my enemies".

That way, if the US decides to do the right thing and declare an end here and now to Russian expansionism in Europe, they will understand that we mean it, regardless of if we are fronting costs of Europe not having a real collective Army or Navy of its own.

Pulling out of NATO may actually be a good thing for Europe as it will force all the EU members to seriously look at funding that collective military based on the militaries of the nations, one that does not need the US to address every issue every time Russia, or an Arab nation or someone in Africa decides to get stupid and threaten their interests.

This is why the things you are seeing and hearing happen are happening, and they will only get louder until Russia agrees to come to the table on Ukraine.

I have a lot of thoughts about that subject but it is going to need to be saved for later in the week.

But there you go. I hope you all understand the geopolitics of what is going on in the upcoming Trump Administration Part Duex.

Note: Steven Edwards is a guest commentator, former Libertarian Candidate for the South Carolina State Assembly and member of the 2nd Life Media Editorial Board Committee.