AlamogordoTownNews.com Special Report: Recall Couy Griffin - "It ain't over till the fat lady sings" or is it? A humming from the Couy Camp...

"It ain't over till the fat lady sings" is a colloquialism which is often used as a proverb. It means that one should not presume to know the outcome of an event which is still in progress. More specifically, the phrase is used when a situation is (or appears to be) nearing its conclusion. It cautions against assuming that the current state of an event is irreversible and clearly determines how or when the event will end. The phrase is used typically in association with organized competitions, particularly sports. For this article we use the proverb in relation to the sport of the Couy Griffin recall effort, or the sport of political sparing in Otero County with Commissioner Couy Griffin. 

While the “fat lady has yet to sing," one can hear the “humming” from the Couy Griffin camp in preparation for a victory by Commissioner Griffin in surviving the effort to recall him.

While the effort is not yet written off, and has not yet failed, the deadline to be included on the November General Election Ballot deadline of September 8th, 2021, is fast approaching. Other local media sources such as the Alamogordo News and KALH Radio have all but called the game.

However, can the Committee To Recall Couy Griffin, pull a win out of the last quarter, of their effort? Time will tell. 

Here is what we know…

An effort to recall Couy Griffin (R) from his position as the District 2 representative on the Otero County Commission in New Mexico filed paperwork on March 11, 2021 District Court Judge Manuel Arrieta ruled on April 8, 2021, that the recall effort could move forward Griffin appealed that decision to the New Mexico Supreme Court on April 19, 2021The New Mexico Supreme Court affirmed the lower court's ruling on June 28, 2021, allowing the recall effort to move forward. Recall supporters must collect 1,574 signatures from registered voters in District 2 in 90 days to get the recall on the ballot.

Recall supporters said Griffin had used the office for personal gain. Griffin said the allegations against him were baseless and politically motivated.

Griffin is one of three members of the Otero County Commission. He was elected to the commission in 2018, defeating Democratic candidate Christopher S. Jones with 65% of the vote.

Recall supporters listed five reasons for recall in their request to the Twelfth District Court, including:

1. Failing to be present at county commission meetings
2. Being unable to perform his duties within his district due to being banned from the sovereign nation and lands of the Mescalero Apache Tribe
3. Filming a video inside the County Commission Administration building to solicit funds for a political organization
4. Filing a travel voucher with the county to pay for events that did not relate to his duties as a county commissioner
5. Soliciting and receiving a donation from a restricted donor

At the recall hearing, Griffin called the recall supporters' allegations "frivolous, baseless and politically motivated," according to the Associated Press.

Griffin also said the recall hearing proceedings were tilted against him as Judge Manuel Arrieta had been appointed by a Democratic governor. “I feel like I was just really railroaded," Griffin said.

Griffin, who founded the organization Cowboys for Trump, was arrested in Washington, D.C., on January 17, 2021, for his alleged role in the breach of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. He was charged with "knowingly entering or remaining in any restricted building or grounds without lawful authority," according to the Alamogordo Daily News. Griffin was released from federal prison on February 5, 2021.

After Griffin was arrested, District 1 Commissioner Gerald Matherly (R) and District 3 Commissioner Vickie Marquardt (R) called for his resignation. In a statement released on January 19, 2021, the two commissioners said, "Couy Griffin from his first day as an Otero County Commissioner had devoted himself to promoting Cowboys for Trump for Trump organization rather than being a county commissioner who serves the citizens of Otero County who elected him."

New Mexico Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) also called for Griffin's resignation in a letter published on January 16, 2021. Griffin said he would not resign.

At a county commission meeting on February 11, 2021, Griffin said he was accused of crimes but not convicted. "I just want those that have already come to the conclusion that I'm guilty, I just again ask you to put the brakes on a little bit and let the legal process take place," Griffin said.

Griffin continued: “It's one thing to be charged, it's another thing to be proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. In regard to my position here in Otero County, it is a position that has been a great honor to date, and I believe will continue to be a great honor moving into the future.

That is to prayerfully hold the line on a constitutional side, to fight for individual rights, individual liberties and individual freedoms which I believe that by God's grace I have been able to do today.”

Where is the effort now?

New Mexico allows recalls at the county level for "malfeasance or misfeasance in office or violation of the oath of office by the official concerned."  Those actions must have occurred during the official's current term of office in order for a recall effort to be approved to circulate petitions.

Supporters of the recall against Griffin filed paperwork with the New Mexico Twelfth Judicial District Court on March 11, 2021, requesting a hearing to determine if their recall petition could be circulated. The hearing was held on April 8, 2021. At the hearing, recall supporters and Griffin were able to present evidence and witnesses. District Court Judge Manuel Arrieta ruled in favor of the recall effort. Griffin appealed that decision to the New Mexico Supreme Court on April 19, 2021. The New Mexico Supreme Court affirmed the lower court's ruling on June 28, 2021, allowing the recall effort to move forward.

Third Judicial District Court Judge Manuel Arrieta had to sign the recall petitions before recall supporters could begin circulating petitions. They started circulating on July 1, 2021 and had 90 days to collect signatures equal to 33.3% of voters who cast ballots in Griffin's most recent election, a total of 1,574 signatures.

As of the last press release from the recall committee they stated:

As of Aug. 24, the petition to recall Otero County Commissioner Couy Griffin has collected 853 of the required 1,574 signatures.

The recall effort has about 30 days in the 90-day window to gather the required signatures.

"We are still striving to get the signatures by Sept. 8 in order to get the recall initiative on the November ballot instead of a special election," a press release from to recall effort states. "We are slightly behind the pace of signatures required to meet our goal and we are expanding our advertising and collection methods."

The press release continued:

“Timeline: We are 55 days into the 90-day signature collection window. Although we have 35 days remaining of the 90 days allotted, we are still striving to get the signatures by 8 September in order to get the Recall initiative on the November ballot instead of a special election. We are slightly behind the pace of signatures required to meet our goal and we are expanding our advertising and collection methods.

Fundraising to Date: $4,947

Expenditures to Date: $3,866 (Expenses include: court filings, copies, banners, signs, voter list, t-shirts, postage, post cards, radio ads and bank fees. In-kind donations are not included).”

Armchair quarterbacking…

This recall effort should have been a homerun for the committee. The task at hand of signature gathering should already be completed based on the public outrage that once prevailed around Couy Griffins actions, statements, and actions at the nation’s capital.

Time is on the side of Couy Griffin, and as time passes outrage eases, to complacency. The committee got a slow start, and has yet to show the public urgency, one would expect from such an effort.

In speaking to several political consultants who are outsiders looking in ,each said the committee “failed to act fast and furious.” 

A well regarded California consultant who worked on a recall campaign of a former California Governor whom I've worked with previously said, "he was shocked to hear the committee was not doing grass roots door to door canvassing." He said, “this would have been an easy job for paid canvassing leaders paired with trained volunteers. In the last election 61% of the voters, voted Republican.

He made a few calls and then said, "Polling shows 1/3 of the Republican voters had turned on Mr. Griffin, 36% of the voters are Democrats, of which a majority would sign for the recall and about 3% are independent and about half would have signed the petition. With door to door canvasing targeting the Democrats, Independents and the 18% of disenfranchised Republicans it could have easily yielded 55% of the registered voters in his district to sign the recall effort, based on discrete polling by an unnamed interested outside party.”

The effort only needed 33.3% of the voters to sign in order to get the recall on the ballot, thus there is a 22% cushion of a margin in favor of the recall, that is not being reached by the committee.

Voter turn out in Otero County is well below the state and national average, and only the most engaged voters actually participate, unless prompted. This is why some elected city representatives have seat with fewer than 400 votes. Voter apathy is rampant in Otero County. The committee needed to make it easy, for the complacent voter, to participate thus door to door canvassing is what was the missing component that would have made the difference.

Secondarily, the committee lost a ton of momentum, when Chez Sanchez left the committee for personal reasons. While Chez Sanchez has worked hard independent of the committee, to push the recall effort, the mojo and momentum of the committee was lost when he left as spokesperson, and Scott Fredrick took the spokespersons position.

Was Scott Fredrick as committed to the effort as Chez Sanchez or as dynamic in garnering support? Maybe, but he certainly did not consider optics in his actions. 

If the star receiver left the field during the 4th Quarter of an Alamogordo Tiger football game, the crowd would go berserk. Scott Fredrick went to Sturgis, posted his absence on his personal Facebook page of which is public, during the 4th Quarter of the Couy Griffin recall effort. Has this played a role in a complacent public not signing onto the recall or does Scott Fredrick and the committee members efforts or lack thereof even matter? Optics ALWAYS matter in politics!

Yes, the effort matters. It is an effort, at people power, meaning an effort of the people to reassert their role, as reminding the political leadership of Otero County and the state of New Mexico, that leadership is not unchecked, even in conservative leaning Otero County, and that the public cares about the actions and messaging of its leaders.

So, can the committee still pull it off? 

Yes, they COULD, but in order to do so, they need to get aggressive, they need to knock on doors, every night, not just on weekends, they need to use every possible method to include phone trees, refer a friend, and not just social media to get their message out. They need to reach out and see if Chez Sanchez can rejoin the effort, even if just for the final weeks, and they need to actually put in a 110% effort toward victory. Are they that committed or are they as complacent as the average voter? There are good people on the committee and the community is made up of good people. Leadership and mojo is what was lost.

And Commissioner Griffin? What does he need to do, to maintain his position? He needs to keep quiet; he needs to wait the effort out, and not be reactionary, nor take the bait of the press nor the public. Can he? Will he?

Who will prevail? 

Odds are leaning toward Commissioner Griffin, but just maybe, "the singing fat lady in this case," is the Committee to Recall Couy Griffin; and the humming we hear from the Griffin camp, is just that a hum, not a hymn of victory over the recall.

Stay tuned and keep listening to the sounds of music and of course reading the AlamogordoTownNews.com site to stay informed with in depth coverage of local issues...

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