10-12-2024 5:45am

Grey Power Being Flexed at the Polls as it Dominates Early Voting In Otero County New Mexico

Grey power is flexing its muscles at the polls in Alamogordo and Otero County New Mexico based on data from the county clerks office released on early voting numbers.

The power of the grey vote, will younger demographics engage locally in 2024?

AlamogordoTownNews.org reported on the first day of early voting, of the line to vote streaming out of the Otero County building on New York Avenue and reported the early numbers. We now have an update to the numbers showing early ballots continue to be cast at a heavy rate for Otero County.

The early voting and absentee voting numbers for the first 3 days of voting in Otero County show 1665 votes cast and received with 998 being Republican votes cast.

AlamogordoTownNews.org asked one of our data specialists that loves to crunch the local numbers, if they had any insight into a further composition of the local voters to date

Our volunteer data cruncher, Tom Krajci, Alamogordo's own version of data specialist Steve Kornacki, highlighted an eye opening graph of the number of early votes cast by age.

After three days of early voting in Otero county he made a histogram of all those that have cast ballots. His graphic below highlights "Senior citizens are kicking serious butt when it comes to showing up at the polls for early voting."

The graph above shows early voting exceptionally heavy of those voters aged 60 to 80.

In the U.S., citizens are more likely to vote as they age is the historical trend. With the U.S. in another presidential election year, the demographic with the highest turnout will have the most sway over results. Early results in Otero County show the grey Republican vote is the voice that is dominating the polls the first 3 days of votes cast. The question remains whether younger voters will actually engage and what impact they will actually have locally and on the national level.

According to research from the Pew Foundation, voter turnout in the 2020 general election climbed to decades-high levels. More than 158.4 million people, or 62.8% of U.S. citizens aged 18 and older, cast a vote in the 2020 presidential election, Pew found.

In that 2020 election 71.9% of voters 65 and over voted verses 48% of those age 18 to 24, 55% those aged 25 to 44 and 65.5% of those eligible ages 45 to 64.

Will that trend prevail in 2024 or will the percentages of younger voters engage with the more significant ourreach that candidates such as Kamala Harris is doing on social media and podcasts where younger voters gather?

The trend of 2o20 illustrates a trend toward higher voting rates over time, showing that those over age 65 are the most reliable voting group.

For older Americans Social Security and economic concerns drive their motivation to engage and ensure their voices are heard loudly.

For younger citizens voting historically has not been a life priority. Any time you move, you’re required to update your voter registration with your new address. Younger voters who are busy with families and careers often can’t or don’t prioritize keeping their voter registrations current.

In a 2020 blog post by the University of Virginia’s Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, associate professor John Holbein wrote, "The act of voting can take considerable time, effort and planning. There are the institutional hurdles – such as voter registration updates and acquiring the accepted voter identification, which can vary by state."

"Young people often have irregular school and work schedules while juggling life’s many other demands and distractions," Holbein added.

Older voters, though, tend to move around less and have more set schedules thus making them less inclined to have to update their registrations and have less issues with the actual voting process.

More older people, especially older people of color recognize the importance of casting their vote since many know of previous generations that may not have had the option to vote with ease due to their race, gender or inability to pay poll taxes, which were dominant in the rural south not that many decades ago.

Younger voters are not as in touch with the struggles of voting rights in the past and thus are historically less committed. Will 2024 be that change that sees a rise in younger voters in Otero County and across the nation?

Stay tuned as we monitor and report from the local data, our pal, Tom Krajci, is keeping an eye on. He will be analyzing the local data and will be slicing and dicing it for our consumption, and reporting, as the final weeks of this election unfold.

Note: Contributors to this story include contributor Mica Maynard, Chris Edwards, John Holbein and Tom Krajci for AlamogordoTownNews.org and KALHRadio.org