Otero County’s early vote follows statewide shifts as legislative races head into the final two weeks

ALAMOGORDO, N.M. — Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026

Early voting in New Mexico House District 51 has settled into a slow, steady pace after a busy opening day, and county ballot data show hundreds of voters who requested mail ballots have yet to return them. With 16 days until Election Day, the numbers also show Otero County moving in step with statewide trends, even as its voters lean differently than the rest of New Mexico.

Through Oct. 16, District 51 had received 1,962 ballots: 1,497 cast in person and 465 returned by mail. Republicans account for 847 of those ballots (43%), Democrats 775 (40%) and voters who decline to state a party 329 (17%). A handful came from Libertarian, Green and other minor-party voters.

The race pits Republican incumbent John Block, who has held the seat since 2023, against independent Grace A. Nagamine, a lifelong Alamogordo resident and founder of Royal Angels. Nagamine has said she is running as an independent because the district’s problems, including an aging water system, child-welfare reform and housing for military families, are not partisan issues.

Opening-day rush has faded

In-person voting opened Oct. 6 with 263 ballots cast in the district, the busiest day so far. Daily totals have since held between about 115 and 190, with the low point of 114 on Oct. 12, Indigenous Peoples’ Day. Expanded early voting at the Otero County Fairgrounds began Oct. 17, and county officials and campaigns will be watching whether the second site lifts the numbers.

In-person voters have leaned Republican: 739 Republicans, 500 Democrats and 250 decline-to-state voters through Oct. 16. Mail ballots show the opposite pattern, with 275 returned by Democrats compared with 108 by Republicans and 79 by independents.

How District 51 compares with the state

Statewide, about 63,000 New Mexicans had voted early or by absentee ballot as of Oct. 16, roughly 4.3% of registered voters, according to Secretary of State data reported by Source NM. Democrats cast nearly 37,000 of those ballots, Republicans about 17,000 and independents nearly 9,000.

District 51’s early electorate runs about 16 points more Republican than the state’s, and independents make up a slightly larger share locally. But the direction of travel is the same. Statewide, the Republican share of in-person early votes has climbed from about 26% in the first days to about 30%. In District 51, the Republican share of in-person votes rose from 47.5% over the first four days to 51% over the next five, while the Democratic share slipped from 35% to 32% and the decline-to-state share from 17% to 16%.

The two parties read those numbers differently. The Democratic Party of New Mexico told the Santa Fe New Mexican that its voters are performing well even by Democratic standards. Republican Party of New Mexico spokesperson Leticia Muñoz said Republicans traditionally turn out on Election Day and predicted the numbers would shift once expanded early voting began.

New Mexico’s 2022 midterm turnout was 52.4% of registered voters, and the state has added about 94,000 voters since then. Bernalillo County Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh told the Albuquerque Journal she expects turnout to be up this year, following a June primary that drew near-record participation.

The national picture

Nationally, more than 700,000 Americans in at least 30 states had voted by Oct. 1, according to reporting citing CNN data. Democrats were requesting mail ballots at higher rates than at the same point in 2024 in several states with major races, including Iowa, where Democrats made up 67% of requests, up from 54%. Analysts caution that early returns skew toward older and mail voters, and that Republicans have increasingly shifted to voting in person, a pattern that District 51’s split between mail and in-person ballots reflects.

801 ballots still outstanding

Of the mail ballots sent to District 51 voters, 801 had not been returned as of Oct. 16. Democrats hold 393 of them, Republicans 226 and decline-to-state voters 175, with seven more held by minor-party voters. Mailed ballots must reach the county clerk by 7 p.m. on Election Day to be counted.

“[DRAFT QUOTE — PENDING CAMPAIGN APPROVAL] Every ballot that comes back early is a voice already heard. If you have a ballot on your kitchen table, fill it out and drop it off this week. If you’d rather vote in person, the Fairgrounds is open now. Don’t wait for Election Day — District 51’s future is being decided right now,” said a spokesperson for the Nagamine campaign.

What the trends mean for each local race

House District 51: John Block (R) vs. Grace A. Nagamine (I)

As the district with the most Otero County voters, District 51 has cast about two-thirds of the county’s early ballots. A rising Republican share of in-person votes mirrors the statewide shift. For an independent candidate, the 175 unreturned decline-to-state ballots and the 393 unreturned Democratic ballots are the largest pool of votes still in voters’ hands, while the incumbent’s party is gaining ground in person.

House District 53: Ben Luna Jr. (R) vs. Sarah Silva (D, incumbent)

District 53 is centered in eastern Doña Ana County and reaches only a corner of Otero County around Chaparral, so local numbers are small: an earlier county snapshot showed 28 ballots received from the Otero portion and 77 mail ballots outstanding. An early voting site at the Chaparral Far South Fire Station, 827 Luna St., opens Oct. 29. Because most of the district’s voters live in Doña Ana County, where Democratic early voting tends to be strong, the statewide pattern is likely to matter more here than Otero County’s.

House District 54: Johnathan Allen Henry (R), unopposed

With no opponent on the ballot, District 54’s outcome is settled, but its voters still help decide the Senate District 33, governor and congressional races. The county snapshot showed 642 ballots received from the district’s Otero County portion and 302 mail ballots outstanding.

House District 56: Harlan Vincent (R, incumbent)

District 56 spans Lincoln and Otero counties. The county snapshot showed 444 ballots received from its Otero County portion and 218 mail ballots outstanding. An early voting site at the Inn of the Mountain Gods in Mescalero is scheduled for Oct. 28 through 30.

Senate District 33: William Griffin (D) vs. Rex Wilson (R)

The only state Senate seat on the 2026 ballot covers parts of Otero, Lincoln and Chaves counties, all areas where Republicans have historically led early voting. If the statewide drift toward Republican in-person voting continues, it is likely to show up most strongly in districts like this one. The nearly 1,400 mail ballots still outstanding across Otero County could still shape the margin.

Other races on the ballot

• County Commission: Republican Christopher Wayne Glidden vs. Democrat Alan David Gonzalez in District 1; Republican Jonathan T. Emery vs. independent Evan Christopher Lambert in District 2.• Governor: Democrat Deb Haaland vs. Republican Gregg Hull.• U.S. Senate: Democrat Ben Ray Luján vs. Republican Larry Marker. U.S. House District 2: Democrat Gabe Vasquez vs. Republican Gregory Cunningham.• Four constitutional amendments, three statewide bond questions and a local Otero County bond.

How to vote early

• Tuesday, Oct. 20 is the last day to request an absentee ballot.• Otero County Administration Building, 1101 N. New York Ave., Room 101: weekdays 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. through Oct. 31.• Otero County Fairgrounds, 401 Fairgrounds Road: Oct. 17 through Oct. 31. Call the clerk to confirm hours.• Inn of the Mountain Gods, Mescalero: Oct. 28–30. Chaparral Far South Fire Station: Oct. 29–31.• Same-day registration is available at early-voting sites and on Election Day.• Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and any Otero County voter may use any voting convenience center.

Questions can be directed to the Otero County Clerk’s Office at (575) 437-4942 or nmvote.org.

Sources

1. Otero County ballot data: House District 51 absentee and early vote by party, and ballots received and sent by legislative district, through Oct. 16, 2026 (provided by campaign)2. Source NM – New Mexico early voting locations expand on Saturday (Oct. 16, 2026) — https://sourcenm.com/2026/10/16/new-mexico-early-voting-locations-expand-on-saturday/3. Santa Fe New Mexican – New Mexico Democrats, Republicans differ on what early voting numbers mean — https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/new-mexico-democrats-republicans-differ-on-what-early-voting-numbers-mean/article_5b705549-6c13-413e-9585-11cfe8beaa56.html4. Albuquerque Journal – Early voting begins in New Mexico as officials prepare for high turnout — https://www.abqjournal.com/news/early-voting-set-to-begin-in-new-mexico-amid-wariness-over-possible-disruptions/31357525. KFI AM 640 – Early voting data provides insight into how the midterms might turn out (Oct. 1, 2026) — https://kfiam640.iheart.com/content/2026-10-01-early-voting-data-provides-insight-into-how-the-midterms-might-turn-out/6. 2nd Life Media Alamogordo – Early Voting Begins Oct 6, in Alamogordo: What to Know — https://2ndlifemediaalamogordo.town.news/g/alamogordo-nm/n/392291/early-voting-begins-oct-6-alamogordo-what-know7. Source NM Voter Guide – State Representative, District 51 — https://sourcenm.com/voter-guides/contests/state-representative-district-51/8. The Ballot Brief – New Mexico House District 51 — https://theballotbrief.com/state/new-mexico/otero-county/new-mexico-house-district-519. The Ballot Brief – New Mexico House District 53 — https://theballotbrief.com/state/new-mexico/otero-county/new-mexico-house-district-5310. Source NM – Dems select Sarah Silva for House District 53 (Aug. 26, 2024) — https://sourcenm.com/?p=1707211. Source NM – Candidates are filing for office with New Mexico’s 70 House seats up for election (Feb. 24, 2026) — https://sourcenm.com/2026/02/24/campaign-kickoff-candidates-are-filing-for-office-with-new-mexicos-70-house-seats-up-for-election/12. Otero County Clerk – 2026 General Election Early Voting Notice — https://co.otero.nm.us/DocumentCenter/View/10325/Early-Voting-Notice-for-2026-General-Election?bidId=13. New Mexico Secretary of State – County Clerk Information — https://www.sos.nm.gov/voting-and-elections/county-clerk-information/

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