Independent Voters on the Rise in New Mexico

More New Mexicans are choosing not to pick a party, and one local researcher says political parties ignore that shift at their own risk.

In a conversation with Anthony, Stephanie, an accountant and researcher, laid out the numbers behind the growth of independent and decline-to-state (DTS) voters. She connected the trend to a decades-old political science idea known as partisan realignment.

A record share of independents

Nationally, Stephanie pointed to a Gallup poll finding that a record 45% of Americans identified as independent in 2025. Republicans and Democrats each drew 27%.

New Mexico is seeing the same pattern. Bernalillo County has the most independent and DTS voters in raw numbers. By share of registered voters, Doña Ana County leads at 31%, with Otero County close behind at 30%.

"Don't define my politics for me"

Curious about the trend, Stephanie began asking people why they registered as independents. Several answers stood out. Some said it makes it easier to keep friendships intact. Others said they don't want to explain their vote to anyone, or be labeled by either side.

Those answers fit partisan realignment, she said: voters grow less attached to a party even while holding strong political views.

"Basically, more Americans are saying, 'Don't define my politics for me,'" Stephanie said. "I'll decide issue by issue and candidate by candidate."

Senate Bill 16 opens the primaries

New Mexico made the DTS path more appealing with Senate Bill 16, passed in 2025. The law lets DTS voters choose a party's primary ballot without changing their registration.

Stephanie expects the change to draw even more voters to register DTS. She said the first election after the bill passed added 10% more votes to the primary. "That's one in ten," she said, calling it a very significant number for New Mexico.

Parties can no longer count on the label

For years, Stephanie said, parties have grown comfortable expecting votes based on party alone. As the independent population grows, more of those votes may have to be earned on the candidate, the policy and the issue.

She has seen what happens when a party misses that chance. She once introduced an intern to a number of elected officials. When a party chair asked his affiliation and he answered DTS, the chair replied, "I can't help you then."

"What a missed opportunity," Stephanie said. The intern was a young person interested in government, she noted, and instead of being asked what mattered to him, he was dismissed for not choosing a party.

Eyes on 2026 and 2028

With the midterms ahead, Stephanie said it will be worth watching how independent voters shape the 2026 results and what that signals for 2028.

For anyone not yet registered, she noted it isn't too late. New Mexico lets eligible voters register and vote on the same day during early voting at participating locations, or on Election Day.

Watch the full conversation: https://youtu.be/9JJvlol5Pfw?is=58sK0z3odKOfiDne

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